Most scientists now accept that Global Warming is in fact happening and some scientists, including James Hansen and James Lovelock, are making dire predictions of what might happen if we do not control and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases within the next decade or so. They even go as far as to say that it might not be possible, in the near future, to reverse the changes that mankind has already set in motion.
Palaeo-climate research also suggests that the climate made sudden and rather dramatic changes in the past. For instance, when the world was warming up from the last ice age a sudden reversal was made, within the lifetime of human beings, to plunge the earth back into ice age conditions. The earth remained in this state for a thousand years or so before returning quickly, within ten years, to a more temperate climate as today. Such were the conditions of the Younger Dryas period.
The IPCC (Inter Governmental Panel for Climate Change) predicts that there will be a smooth increase in temperature as carbon di-oxide and other greenhouse emissions continue to rise. This prediction is probably not accurate and as more energy is added to the atmospheric system we should expect sudden changes. The cold experienced by Europe and North America in January 2010 should be set into perspective. As a global average, January 2010 was one of the hottest on record.
The wine industry faces two problems: global average temperatures which will probably rise by 2 degrees centigrade or more before the end of the century; and sudden changes to the weather patterns, resulting in unexpected cold or very hot periods, drought and heavy rain.
We are already seeing the results of climate change. The weather has warmed up in the Bordeaux region , so that we have seen a series of improving vintages. The conditions within the last decade or so have been optimal for the growth of the Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Petit Verdot, Cabernet Franc, Semillon and other Bordeaux grape varieties. But how long will these optimum conditions last for? Will it become too hot, in the future, to allow for a series of great vintages?
We should also consider what will happen in more Northerly climes. For example the Pinot Noir grape thrives in the cooler environment of Champagne. Climate change may affect the quality of the world's most famous wine.
The French Ministry of Ecology and Sustainable Development has calculated that for every 1° C rise in average temperature, climatic conditions are displaced by 180 km towards the North(N) (in the Northern Hemisphere)
If we assume that climate change predictions are correct then there will be a substantial impact on the wine industry.
The regions of the world where vine growing is optimal could easily change. We are already seeing the effects of desertification and drought in Spain and Australia. In some wine growing areas viticulture is impossible without irrigation. Vine growing conditions in some countries, such as the UK, might improve for a short period . The types of vine grown might have to change. As discussed before, the Pinot Noir grape might become unsuitable for growth in the Champagne region and this could have serious implications. There is also the possibility that desertification could pose problems not only in Spain but in the South of France and viable viticulture may be rendered impossible. These dangers are also faced by Australia. Many wine growing regions of the world might need to change the grape variety grown. For instance, the Syrah grape variety is well adapted to hot growing conditions. Perhaps the Syrah grape will have to replace the Gamay in Beaujolais or the Pint Noir in Burgundy. But will it suit the soil and will it change the character of the wines completely?
The phenology of the vine and vine pests will also have to be considered. We have touched on this before, the conditions of the growing season may change. In winter, frost helps to rest the vines and eradicate vineyard pests. Changes to the seasons may have adverse effects on viticultural techniques. Excessive heat and rain at the wrong time could spoil the growing conditions. When the average temperature rises above 21 degrees centigrade the soil is unable to retain moisture, so even the heavy rain which is expected as a result of climate change will not help to fertilise the soil. Some vineyards require damp misty conditions in the morning followed by autumnal heat in the afternoon to encourage noble rot. Such weather helps to produce the finest sweet wines of Sauternes and Bergerac , climate change could prevent this happening. Global warming will probably have adverse effects in all areas of the world practising viticulture.
In Europe, the appellation rules and wine legislation are strict but changes will be required to allow for more irrigation and to allow different grape varieties to be grown in the controlled areas.
The social and economic consequences of damage to viticulture could be serious, if not calamitous, especially in Europe. In countries such as France and Italy wine is intricately interwoven into the cuisine and into the social fabric of society. We have even seen substantial social unrest in France when the wine industry is threatened by government intervention or removal of subsidies. Climate change poses a bigger threat than politics. The wine industry employs thousands of businesses in France, Italy and Spain so the economic consequences of damage to the industry will be considerable. Even states such as California will not be immune to the consequences. On a personal level wine might become too expensive to drink on anything other than important occasions. The traditional characters of our wines might disappear if the the wine varieties grown in a region have to be changed or irrigation is deployed. Some wines, relying on noble rot or a special climate, such as Monbazillac, might disappear completely.
The number of fine vintages will decrease or disappear altogether and we might be left with no investment wines. The price of 2005 Mouton Rothschild held in cool cellars might have rocketed by 2030, so that only extremely rich corporations or governments will be able to afford to buy them. The long term investment potential for fine wine looks good from a monetary point of view.
I am not normally a pessimist, but all this could happen within the next three decades. All I can say to young people is "enjoy your fine wine responsibly now and lay some down" . In two to three decades time, fine wine might not exist or if it does it might be too expensive to enjoy.
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